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HomeMy WebLinkAbout111803 FIVE YEAR FORECAST PRESENTATION' - ~ ear re s Y 20 - o F 0 A Di ussio f e evenu , Expen 'tures, p ations Prepared the Department of Managem Services FO~G~S~, CaV~ts ^ orecas is a d on I qay' ii es ^ Fu re Co i e is Will an Forec st ^ External actors a I act the Forecast ^ Resource Man emen I ill ALWAYS be Bala ced ^ Starting Place for Dialog 1 Fo~e~s~t. Revue u $ Millions 2 FY 2005 2006 007 FY 2008 FY 2009 Real fate $ 33 16 $ 362.19 $ 3.65 $ 6. $ 2.57 $ 439.39 Persona roperty 05.8 08.89 113.9 117. 12.5 127.62 General Sal 4 81 4 84 46.59 48.41 .30 52.26 Utility Taxes 33.4 5.8 36.78 7.77 8. 9.82 Cell Phone 4.37 5 5.53 5. 6. 6 7 Business Licenses 31.96 4.07 .94 37.92 40.00 2.20 Franchise 4.80 4. 6 5.0 5.30 5.54 5.79 Other Local Taxes 84. 86.16 8 3 92.46 95.5 99.41 Local Revenues 20.91 19.14 19.2 43 19.59 19.75 Revenue from the 54.36 55.13 5 8 60.7 63.82 67.01 Commonwealth Revenue from the 18.28 18. 19.24 20.20 21.21 22.27 Federal Government Transfers from 5.38 5.58 5.5 5.74 5.89 6.05 Other Funds Total Revenue $ 742.86 $ 780.15 $ 818.08 $ 858.14 $ 892.36 $ 928.04 Re t e Ta Gr 6 550 500 0 450 400 a ~ 350 300 250 200 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 2 C Pe o rope owth 13 120 G 0 110 100 90 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 F 07 FY 08 FY 09 Ge r ales x 60 0 50 40 30 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 0 FY 08 FY 09 3 Utl ' t Gro th 4 ~, 40 c 0 c `~' 35 30 FY 04 FY OS FY 06 07 FY 08 FY 09 Ce o e Tax ro s 6 0 4 2 0 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 F 07 FY 08 FY 09 4 Bu 'n s icen 5 45 ~ 40 0 35 30 25 20 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 07 FY 08 FY 09 Fra c ' s Tax o 7 6 ~ 5 0 c ~ 4 3 2 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 F 07 FY 08 FY 09 5 $ In Millio Other Local T s Local Revenues Revenue from the Commonwealth Revenue from the Federal Government Transfers from Other Funds Total i~v Rev~iu 004 FY OS FY 2006 FY 2007 200 FX 2009 $ 84. $ 6.1 $ 89.23 $ 2.46 5. 5 99.41 20.91 19.1 9.28 19.43 19.5 1 5 .36 55.1 7.88 60.78 .82 67.01 18.28 18.32 9.24 2 . 0 21.21 22.27 5.38 8 5.59 5. 5.89 6.05 $ 183.48 $184.33 91.22 98.61 $ 206.36 $ 214.49 T Portsmout VA Ocean City, Norfolk, VA Richmond, VA Newport News, VA Hampton, VA Average Chesapeake, VA Alexandria, VA Virginia Beach, VA Roanoke, VA Lynchburg, VA Suffolk, VA Myrtle Beach, SC n on e r~ al state Person Total cal Taxe Property Taxes Taxes 1,7 .00 $ 528.96 662. N/A 1,7 .00 48 40 1,737.5 9.1 1,587.50 504. 1,587.50 6.80 1, 3.51 490. 1 1,600.0 496.13 1,350.00 653.60 1,525.00 49.92 1,512.50 41 52 1,387.50 454.0 1,350.00 516.80 850.60 344.16 3,177 1, 38 3,01 2,873 2,814 ,772 2, 7 611 2,5 10 2 94 2,412 2,289 1,460 e Family t e/Local Total Tax co Tax Burden ,04 $ 6,220 4, 7 6,165 3, 43 053 3,04 5 16 3,043 5,857 3, 43 5,815 3,154 5, 681 3,043 5,654 ~ 3,043 5,634 3,043 5,553 3,043 5,537 3,043 5,455 3,043 5,332 3,198 4,658 6 Fi s t Localities s s In Medi Income Y 20 -01 ex tress In 1999-00 tress Index 2000-01 Emporia Ci 18,1 2 1 Norfolk 373 1 Portsmouth 20,1 5 Newport News 22,370 9 11 Hampton 23,594 1 13 Suffolk 5,426 7 Chesapeake 28, 3 54 56 Virginia Beach 27,16 5 63 Henrico County 32,357 11 111 Chesterfield County 37,428 118 118 James City County 33,441 120 120 Fairfax County 45,663 2 132 Bath County $ 22,751 135 135 Cit nditu F ~c $ In illions 20 2005 Fl' 2 FY Salaries $1 93 170. $ 177.95 $ Fringe Benefit 40.81 4 19 51.25 Other Operating 110.80 1 .62 10 2 Expenditures All Other 10 .42 108.08 10 07 Transfers Transfer to 254.75 272.32 2 04 Schools Debt Service 66.96 74.7 83.79 Reserves 1.17 9.31 5.15 Total $742.84 $ 790.41 $ 82 7 Expenditures t 7 2008 FY 2009 189.6 197. $ 210.11 4.42 5 . 6 63.57 113.1 116. 12 .00 109.59 14.68 117.54 30 83 315.40 329.62 66 87.33 87.98 6.22 7.33 7.47 860.51 $ 897.34 $ 936.29 7 Pe o Expe dit recast 32 300 275 0 250 ~ 225 cn 200 175 150 FY 04 FY OS FY 06 07 FY 08 FY 09 Fo c t ebt rvl 5 45 0 40 35 30 25 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 7 FY 08 FY 09 8 e a Mai ena and e 1 1 ~: 100 ~, 80 o 60 40 20 0 ~ - .-- _ FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 07 FY 08 FY 09 De a or Se vic n ex 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 O1 02 9 r~Sc~ool $ In Millions FY 20 f' ZUUS~ Federal Revenu $ 14.37 14. State Sales Tax 53.70 5 1 State Aid 209. 209.43 Other Local 2.20 2.20 Total Revenues $ 279.59 $ 281. ve FI' 2006 2007 2 8 FY 2009 $ 14.37 $ 14. $ 1 7 $ .37 56. 58.68 60.44 .25 10. 11.97 212. 216.35 . 0 2. 2.20 2.20 $ 284.18 287. 289.11 $ 295.17 P By u ent en v e Sou FY 99 FY 2000 ' u e Y 2001 20 FY 2003 Federal $ 8.85 $ 0.05 $ 13 53 $ 9 1 189.70 Commonwealth 2,439.7 2, 09.4 2,619.01 2,597. 2,6 89 GF Transfer 2,321.99 12.0 757.51 2, 3.66 098.94 Other Sources .49 31. 30. 31.4 29.48 Sales Tax 599.89 650.36 687.8 698.23 713.32 Specific Fund 0.00 0.00 00 65.83 0.00 Reserves Total $ 5,498.96 $ 5,883.53 $ 6,2 .40 $ 6,390.35 $ 6,700.33 1~ Sc o end ure ' r ast $ Tn Mi 'ons 2004 005 FI' 200 FY 2 FY 08 FY 2009 Salaries $ 368. $ 81.6 $ 395.68 410.38 .94 $442.44 Fringe Benefits 89.15 109. 14.32 11 79 1 .4 8.64 Purchased 29.38 3 76 32.3 33.82 35.55 ~42 Services Other Charges 18. 18.98 19.0 19.64 00 20.36 Materials and 16.10 16.27 .31 .32 16.34 16.43 Supplies Capital Outlay 3.30 9 3.90 .87 3.84 3.84 Transfers and 8.83 9.00 8.96 8.96 8.96 8.96 Improvements Total $ 534.34 $ 569.29 $ 59 0 611.78 $ 634.11 $ 658.09 Expenditures Fo~c~s~choo~e~s,~~l Cost 575 ~, 550 c 0 525 `~' 500 475 450 FY 04 FY OS FY 06 07 FY OS FY 09 11 Fo c t choo e vice 50 48 ~, 46 0 44 `~ 42 40 38 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 07 FY 08 FY 09 Co iooo ~ 950 ~ 900 89 ~ 850 $86 8 ~- $82 $858 800 ~ 750 7 ~ 700 $743 650 600 FY FY FY FY FY F 04 05 06 07 08 09 -+- Revenue -o--Expenditures ,~~ 58 0 650 z5 $612 - 60 5 $569 ~ c 4 5 0 $5 FY Y FY FY FY FY ~4 0 06 07 08 09 12 Re dati~s ^ liminat Sa db ~dge TI~ ^ Re aluate di t Taxes ^ Develo Efficie ' ` ^ Reduce C is Why ^ Actively Mon' or Activities ^ Proactive Mainten ste State`~e~,sla~ive and al Policy 13