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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCommunity Population and Statistics UpdateVirginia Beach by the Numbers Population, Workforce, and Economic Trends Michael Evans, Director of Business Intelligence Hampton Roads Alliance Population Trends & Characteristics 426,712 459,182 452,965 452,604 471,056 485,257 390,000 400,000 410,000 420,000 430,000 440,000 450,000 460,000 470,000 480,000 490,000 Population Population Projection Current Population: 452,965 10-Year Growth: 550 or 0.1%Anticipated Growth: 7,020 or 1.5% Virginia Beach Population 3 120 97 96 130 147 100 103 110 98 100 135 104 117 118 117 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Chesapeake Franklin Hampton Isle of Wight James City County Newpoert News Norfolk Poquoson Portsmouth Southampton County Suffolk Virginia Beach Williamsburg York County Virginia Hampton Roads Population Growth Index 20-Year Growth Index: 104 Virginia Beach: 8th out of 14 High Growth Concentrated in Rural Communities 4 Growth in Virginia’s Large Localities •Slow overall growth in municipalities with population 250k+ •5-Year Growth: 1% in large counties, while flat in independent cities Locality 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Average Chesterfield 3%1%3%2%2%2% Fairfax 0%0%0%0%1%0% Henrico 2%0%0%1%2%1% Loudoun 2%1%1%1%1%1% Prince William 2%0%2%1%1%1% Chesapeake 1%0%1%0%0%0% Virginia Beach 0%0%-1%0%0%0% Total 1%0%1%0%1%1% 5 •Population growth has been largely flat over the last decade •Virginia Beach is middle of the pack regionally for growth Considerations: •Revenue & Fiscal Health: Without population growth, the city’s tax base stagnates, but the cost of services continues to rise. •Talent Retention and Attraction: With little natural population increase, future economic growth hinges on importing talent. Key Takeaways: Population 6 Hampton Roads 2022 Net Migration: -2,753 •Inbound Migration: 58,398 •Outbound Migration: 61,151 Virginia Beach 2022 Net Migration: -3,674 •Inbound Migration: 25,639 •Outbound Migration: 29,313 Domestic Migration Patterns 7 Gross Migration: Top Localities 4,230 3,039 819 639 433 394 393 364 347 243 (343) (362) (387) (504) (528) (688) (894) (978) (3,697) (4,439) (5,500) (3,500) (1,500)500 2,500 4,500 Norfolk, VA Chesapeake, VA San Diego, CA Portsmouth, VA Suffolk, VA Fairfax County, VA Hampton, VA Duval County, FL Newport News, VA Honolulu, HI Newport News, VA Fairfax County, VA Currituck County, NC Duval County, FL Hampton, VA San Diego, CA Portsmouth, VA Suffolk, VA Norfolk, VA Chesapeake, VA 8 Net Migration: Top Localities Overall 533 131 71 64 57 56 51 47 45 (74) (79) (80) (99) (135) (140) (243) (255) (544) (1,400) (1,750) (1,250) (750) (250)250 750 Norfolk, VA San Diego, CA Queens County, NY Harrison County, MS Kings County, NY Philadelphia, PA Suffolk County, NY Sacramento, CA Arlington County, VA Bexar County, TX Isle of Wight County, VA Pasquotank County, NC Wake County, NC Hampton, VA Duval County, FL Currituck County, NC Portsmouth, VA Suffolk, VA Chesapeake, VA 9 Net Migration: Top Localities in Virginia 533 45 43 37 31 29 22 20 20 (22) (27) (30) (65) (73) (79) (135) (255) (544) (1,400) (1,750) (1,250) (750) (250)250 750 Norfolk, VA Arlington County, VA Stafford County, VA Loudoun County, VA Fairfax County, VA Accomack County, VA Manassas Park City County, VA Highland County, VA Charlotte County, VA Montgomery County, VA Williamsburg, VA Bedford County, VA Henrico County, VA James City County, VA Isle of Wight County, VA Hampton, VA Portsmouth, VA Suffolk, VA Chesapeake, VA 10 Net Migration: Top Localities outside Virginia 131 71 64 57 56 51 47 44 43 40 (53) (53) (55) (59) (71) (74) (80) (99) (140) (243) (300) (250) (200) (150) (100) (50)0 50 100 150 San Diego County, CA Queens County, NY Harrison County, MS Kings County, NY Philadelphia County, PA Suffolk County, NY Sacramento County, CA Los Angeles County, CA Berkeley County, SC Lauderdale County, MS Hillsborough County, FL Harris County, TX St. Johns County, FL Mecklenburg County, NC Clay County, FL Bexar County, TX Pasquotank County, NC Wake County, NC Duval County, FL Currituck County, NC 11 International Migration •Regionally, international migration is leading to overall population growth. •In Virginia Beach, foreign-born population has increased 7.5% over last decade, from 38,582 in 2013 to 41,472 in 2023, outpacing overall growth. 101 107 90 95 100 105 110 115 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 VB Overall Index Foreign-Born Index 12 •Top domestic migration largely within Hampton Roads •Outside of Hampton Roads, migration is largely between other military metros Considerations: •Regional Housing and Mobility Planning: Migration within the region underscores the need for coordinated housing, transportation, and workforce strategies across localities. •Talent Retention and Attraction: Leverage military presence to build a sticky city, one where veterans, spouses, and service members choose to stay and build careers post service. Key Takeaways: Migration 13 •Growth without momentum •More people are leaving than arriving domestically •International migration is a quiet growth engine •Interconnected with the region Overall Considerations: Population and Migration Trends •Are we prepared for a future where population growth is no longer guaranteed? •How can we convert short-term residents (e.g., military families) into long-term contributors to our economy and community? •What are we doing to ensure our housing, infrastructure, and amenities are competitive with fast-growing metros and peer cities? Key Questions 14 Demographic Trends & Characteristics 2013 Median Age: 34.9 Prime Working Age: 44% Age Composition 24% 11% 44% 11% 11% Under 18 18-24 25-54 55-64 65+ 22% 8% 41% 13% 15% Under 18 18-24 25-54 55-64 65+ 2023 Median Age: 37.4 Prime Working Age: 41% 16 Age Composition: Prime Working Age 40% 41% 41% 42% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44% 187,000 188,000 189,000 190,000 191,000 192,000 193,000 194,000 195,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Prime working age population Prime working age proportion 17 Age Composition: Under 18 21% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 24% 97,000 98,000 99,000 100,000 101,000 102,000 103,000 104,000 105,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Under 18 population Under 18 proportion 18 Age Composition: 65+ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 65+ population 65+ proportion 19 Age Composition •Share of households with children are slowly declining •At the same time, share of households with individuals aged 60+ is increasing 31.9% 28.9% 29.7% 37.2% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Share of Households with Children Share of Households with person age 60+ 20 •Virginia beach has a slowly aging population •Prime working age and under 18 populations slowly falling •Greater share of population is 65+ Considerations: •Revenue & Fiscal Health: An aging population can lead to higher per-capita service costs while reducing revenue growth as more households qualify for tax relief programs. •Talent Retention and Attraction: As retirements accelerate, the city may focus on talent retention, re- skilling, and attracting younger residents to sustain its economic engine. Key Takeaways: Age Composition 21 Veteran Population •2023 Virginia Beach Veteran Population: 53,555 •Larger proportion than Hampton Roads overall 13.6%13.6%13.2%12.7%12.6%12.5%12.3%12.7%12.7%12.2%11.8% 12.6%12.6%12.4%12.1%12.0%12.0%11.8%11.7%11.7%11.4%11.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 VB % Veteran Population HR % Veteran Population 22 2024 Veteran Population: Across Virginia 71,912 63,871 41,174 31,030 30,736 26,107 23,154 21,924 21,333 19,680 17,094 13,915 13,446 12,536 12,243 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Fairfax County Virginia Beach Prince William County Chesapeake Norfolk Chesterfield County Newport News Stafford County Loudoun County Hampton Henrico County Spotsylvania County Arlington County Suffolk Alexandria 23 Projected Veteran Population •Veteran population in Virginia Beach expected to fall 16% by 2040 •Lower than region overall at 19% 2025 2030 2040 Projected Veteran Population 62,846 60,518 53,969 % Change from 2023 -2%-5%-16% 24 •Veterans remain a key demographic •Second largest veteran population in VA, largest among independent cities •Veteran population expected to decline over next two decades Considerations: •Talent Retention and Attraction: Targeted efforts to improve employment pathways, housing access, and veteran-owned business support can help retain veterans and transitioning service members, positioning them as a key pillar of the city’s workforce strategy and helping to counter broader population stagnation. Key Takeaways: Veterans 25 Virginia Beach City Public Schools Cost per Pupil •At $16,316 cost per pupil, Virginia Beach City Public Schools has the second lowest cost per pupil in Hampton Roads $15,850 $16,316 $16,350 $16,355 $17,325 $17,583 $19,212 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 Suffolk Virginia Beach Chesapeake Hampton Norfolk Portsmouth Newport News 27 Student Enrollment •Virginia Beach City Public School’s year-over-year student enrollment has been relatively flat. When comparing the 20-21 and 24-25 school years, there was a 1.2% decline in student enrollment. 65,612 65,498 65,550 65,078 64,823 63,000 63,500 64,000 64,500 65,000 65,500 66,000 66,500 67,000 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 Percent Change in Student Enrollment 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 -0.17%0.08%-0.72%-0.39% 28 Student Enrollment – Grade level •Pre-k through fifth grade makes up the largest portion of student enrollment. 45%46%46%46%46% 23%23%23%22%22% 32%31%31%31%31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 PK - Grade 5 Grade 6 - 8 Grade 9 - 12 29 Student Enrollment – Increasing Needs •While the overall student enrollment has remained relatively flat, the percentage of students who have additional needs has increased across several categories. VBCPS Percent of All Students 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 Economically Disadvantaged Students 41%44%46%46%46% Students with Disabilities 12%13%13%13%14% English Learner Students 3%4%5%5%6% Gifted Students 16%16%17%18%19% 30 Student Enrollment – Increasing Needs •FY2024, Virginia Beach City Public Schools spent $139.6 million on special education and related services (83.5% of these additional costs are funded by state and local funds).. •VBCPS provides additional funding to provide resources that meet the needs of a growing English Language Learner (approximately $3,200/student) and a growing Gifted Learner (approximately $2,100/student) population. Disability Category Pupil Count Expenditures Per Pupil Expenditure Hearing Impairments 39 $1,718,290 $44,059 Speech or Language Impairments 834 $4,967,767 $5,957 Visual Impairments 9 $220,108 $24,456 Emotional Disturbance 309 $5,155,922 $16,686 Orthopedic Impairments 19 $315,592 $16,610 Other Health Impairments 1,599 $22,039,481 $13,783 Specific Learning Disabilities 2,927 $45,871,066 $15,672 Multiple Disabilities 150 $9,290,748 $61,938 Autism 1,474 $34,437,767 $23,363 Traumatic Brain Injured 19 $210,395 $11,073 Developmental Delay 807 $8,415,792 $10,428 Intellectual Disabilities 237 $6,987,632 $29,484 31 Income & Poverty Income •Median household income: $90,685 •Higher than Hampton Roads at $80,533 $65,219 $67,001 $66,634 $67,719 $70,500 $74,186 $76,610 $78,136 $81,810 $87,544 $90,685 $31,934 $32,477 $32,269 $33,250 $34,607 $36,268 $37,776 $39,788 $41,803 $45,320 $47,372 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Median Household Income Per Capita Income 33 Income by Position •Among top 10 occupations, four fall below per capita income Occupation 2024 Jobs Estimated Annual Wage Difference from Per Capita Food Preparation and Serving Related 23,724 $31,650 -$15,722.47 Office and Administrative Support 21,605 $42,787 -$4,585.21 Sales and Related 19,876 $32,631 -$14,740.54 Transportation and Material Moving 14,254 $41,094 -$6,278.24 Business and Financial Operations 13,957 $78,916 $31,543.61 Management 11,855 $106,629 $59,257.24 Educational Instruction and Library 11,845 $55,948 $8,576.23 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 11,318 $81,378 $34,005.78 Military-only 10,125 $50,037 $2,664.83 Construction and Extraction 9,902 $50,083 $2,711.33 34 Poverty Level in Virginia Beach 7.5% 8.3% 5.8% 6.5% 10.8% 10.2% 9.1%8.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Households Below Poverty Level - VB Receiving SNAP Benefits - VB Households Below Poverty Level - VA Receiving SNAP Benefits - VA 35 ALICE Households ALICE (Asset Limited,Income Constrained,Employed) •Income above the FPL •Not enough to afford basic expenses in the county where they live. 7.0%8.3%7.6%7.4%6.6%6.2% 9.4%9.7%8.8% 37.9% 49.3% 33.8%32.0% 28.9%27.4%26.0% 31.3%29.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 Poverty Households ALICE Households 36 MIT Livable Wage •Median nonfamily household income: $57,361 •Proxy for median income of an individual One Adult Two Adults, One Working Two Adults, Both working 0 Children 1 Child 2 Children 3 Children 0 Children 1 Child 2 Children 3 Children 0 Children 1 Child 2 Children 3 Children Living Wage $54,392 $87,443 $108,618 $139,797 $70,533 $84,594 $92,269 $110,011 $35,110 $48,734 $59,030 $72,904 Poverty Wage $15,642 $21,154 $26,645 $32,157 $21,154 $26,645 $32,157 $37,648 $10,566 $13,333 $16,078 $18,824 Minimum Wage $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 $25,813 37 •Median income is high but so is the cost of living •Low official poverty rate masks possible economic vulnerability •Top occupations don’t always pay a livable wage Considerations: •Continue to prioritize business attraction and expansion efforts in industries that create mid- to high-skill, mid- to high-wage jobs. •Recognize that housing affordability directly impacts workforce attraction and retention and align housing development strategies to ensure workers can afford to live in the city where they work. Key Takeaways: Income & Poverty 38 Housing Trends & Characteristics Home Values – Existing Homes •One quarter of all homes assessed at $750,000 or more •Less than 50% of homes assessed below $350,000 32.0% 26.0% 21.0% 17.0% 30.0%30.0%30.0%30.0% 21.0% 25.0%26.0% 28.0% 11.0%12.0% 14.0%15.0% 3.0% 7.0% 9.0%10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Under $250k 250,000-349,999 350,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+ 40 Home Values – New Construction •Nearly half of all homes assessed at $750,000 or more •Less than 20% of homes assessed below $350,000 4.0% 0.4%0.6%0.4% 18.3% 20.9% 26.3% 17.7% 20.0% 11.7% 17.4% 20.3% 32.8% 28.4% 19.0% 13.9% 24.9% 38.6%36.7% 47.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 Under $250k 250,000-349,999 350,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+ 41 Home Sale Price vs. Affordable Home •In 2025, affordability gap has risen to $150,737 $246,978 $268,070 $293,201 $310,921 $273,036 $251,874 $261,237 $267,625$273,884 $289,493 $302,058 $344,752 $375,977 $390,151 $411,179 $418,362 -$26,906 -$21,423 -$8,857 -$33,831 -$102,941 -$138,277 -$149,942 -$150,737-$200,000 -$100,000 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Affordable Home Median Sale Price Affordability Gap 42 Housing Cost by Occupations •Individual earners need to earn more than $130,000 to afford home at median sale price of $418,362 •Less than a quarter (23.2%) of non-family households earn more than $100,000 •6.8% of non-family households earn more than $150,000 Occupation Jobs Median Income "Affordable" Home*Number of Listings 8/1/2025 Share of Listings Registered Nurse 3,212 $84,793 $269,660 94 11.9% Mechanical Engineer 470 $99,461 $316,307 152 19.2% Operations Manager 4,317 $102,749 $326,764 176 22.2% Software Developers 1,805 $128,015 $407,115 311 39.2% Lawyers 995 $128,952 $410,095 313 39.5% *Affordable home calculation based on 30% DTI, 10% down payment, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage as of July 24, 2025 43 Median Rent & Housing Burden •As of 2023, median rent is $1,648 •52.1% of of renter households are cost-burdened $1,087 $1,108 $1,116 $1,135 $1,166 $1,202 $1,234 $1,257 $1,326 $1,440 $1,514 $1,235 $1,239 $1,236 $1,258 $1,296 $1,339 $1,367 $1,380 $1,433 $1,568 $1,649 50.1% 48.0% 53.4% 52.1% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 48.0% 50.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.0% $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Median Rent - VA Median Rent - VB % Housing Burdened - VA % Housing Burdened - VB 44 •Housing is increasingly becoming more expensive and more inaccessible •Interest rate reductions unlikely to help affordability long term and may even deepen the problem •Affordable, workforce housing should be defined to include high-income earners as well Considerations: •Investment in affordable, workforce housing should focus on the “missing middle” of the market. Key Takeaways: Housing 45 The Big Picture: Challenges & Opportunities Connecting the Dots 1. Slow Growth + Aging Population → Workforce Pressure •Flat growth and fewer prime working-age residents shrink the local talent pool. •High housing costs push younger workers and families to other localities. 2. Housing Costs as a Common Constraint •Rising home prices and rents affect migration patterns, labor force size, and school enrollment. •Affordability is key to retaining both young professionals and retiring veterans. 3. Economic Strengths Mask Gaps •High median income, but many top occupations pay far below the cost of living. •ALICE households highlight under-the-surface financial strain. 47 Connecting the Dots 4. Migration Patterns Reflect Competitiveness •Losing residents to rural areas in the region shows the pull of affordability. •International migration offsets domestic losses, but benefits aren’t evenly distributed. 5. Education Demand Is Changing Without Enrollment Growth •Enrollment is flat, but student needs are more complex specialized education, English language learners, and gifted programs. •Rising needs mirror broader demographic shifts. 48 1.Strengthen Housing Affordability as an Economic Strategy 2.Target Talent Retention and Attraction 3.Diversify Job Growth into Mid- to High- Wage Sectors 4.Plan Regionally for Mobility and Quality of Life 5.Adapt Services for a Changing Population Key Considerations: VB by the Numbers 49 Questions & Discussion 50